Super Bowl LV Preview: Will Tom Brady win his seventh ring or will Patrick Mahomes cement himself as an all-time great?
It’s that time of year again. Super Bowl LV is right around the corner, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs prepare to battle it out on Sunday, February 7th. The game will kick off at 6:40 pm ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida. This marks the first time that a team will be playing at their home stadium in the big game. Will Tom Brady, in his 21st season, add a seventh Lombardi trophy to his collection? Will Patrick Mahomes win his second before turning the age of 26? Well, we’re here to help answer those questions. To make things a bit simpler, we’re going to be breaking this up into two sections: Chiefs offense vs. Buccaneers defense, and Buccaneers offense vs. Chiefs defense. We’ll go into thorough detail on each topic, and conclude with our final predictions. So let’s get right into it.
(Photo by: AP Photo/Jason Behnken)
Chiefs Offense v. Buccaneers Defense:
In my mind, the Chiefs’ offense is going to be the best unit on either side of the field for both teams. They’ve made a killing with their passing offense in the past three seasons, with Mahomes under center. So the question is, can the Buccaneers manage to slow it down? Something of note, is that these two teams actually faced off in week 12 of the regular season. Kansas City won 27-24, though the score may be somewhat misleading. It was truly the tale of two halves. Tom Brady struggled mightily early on. Meanwhile, Mahomes played one of his best games all season. Tyreek Hill even finished the first quarter with 200 receiving yards. So it begs the question: What did the Buccaneers’ defense do so wrong? While the answer isn’t so simple, a key factor was their use of one-on-one man coverage with Carlton Davis. This isn’t wholly his fault — there aren’t many corners in the NFL that can cover Tyreek Hill on an island — more-so its an indictment on Todd Bowles’ gameplan. This time around, the Buccaneers must play more zone coverage, with a safety overtop to help cover Hill. I would go as far as to suggest, the Buccaneers have to play a 3-3-5 defense; sending 4 rushers at Mahomes, with Devin White tracking the running back out of the backfield, Lavonte David dropping into coverage, Antonie Winfield Jr. doubling Hill, and Jordan White keeping eyes on Mahomes. This is similar to how Bill Belichick and Brian Flores defended the Chiefs’ offense in the AFC Championship Game two years ago.
Something else that the Buccaneers are going to take away from the previous matchup, is the Chiefs’ success against the blitz. Tampa Bay is one of the most blitz-heavy teams in the NFL — with a 39% rate — its a true hallmark of Todd Bowles’ defenses. However, against Kansas City, they only blitzed nine times. Still, this is far too many against a quarterback of Mahomes’ caliber, who had six completions for 109 yards and two touchdowns on those nine plays alone. This time around, I’d expect Bowles to play it safe and rush four on almost, if not exactly, every play on Sunday. All blitzing will do is take one more guy out of coverage, which opens up passing lanes. If Tampa Bay can win some matchups with Ndamukong Suh, Vita Vea, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Shaquil Barrett, then they could have a chance to win this game. But if they send five or even six rushers at once, and don’t get to Mahomes...then they definitely will not.
So how does Andy Reid attack this? Well first and foremost, the Chiefs must utilize speed, motion, and misdirection. Specifically, pre-snap movement with Mecole Hardman and Tyreek Hill, jet sweeps, end-arounds, spring-outs, and play actions. The talent on Kansas City’s offense is so spectacular, that they really only need the opposing defense to hesitate for a split-second, in order to make a play. Anything that will create the slightest bit of confusion will be utilized. Luckily for the Chiefs, Reid happens to be one of the best coaches in the league at “window dressing”. This means disguising a complex offensive play to look like a simple formation, or vice-versa. Every motion and shift has a purpose, which ultimately leads to defenses having to switch strength calls, change coverages, or get in new alignments. It's the ultimate leg-up for offenses. Todd Bowles better have his players on their P’s and Q’s.
To me, this is a great matchup. Both sides have immense talent; whether it's Travis Kelce or Devin White, Tyreek Hill or Shaquil Barrett. They’re well-coached, finely tuned units that can single-handedly win football games. However, I think it's clear that the Chiefs have an ultimate advantage. Not just with Mahomes, but in a wealth of riches with overwhelming offensive personnel, in expert play calling by Andy Reid, and well...yeah, in the quarterback too.
Buccaneers Offense v. Chiefs Defense:
It’s quite obvious that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ receiving core is among the best in the league with the likes of superstar wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but does it really match up well against Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive defensive grouping that heavily favors blitzing? Historically speaking, Tampa Bay’s signal-caller in Tom Brady has generated pedestrian numbers against Spagnulo’s defenses in their five meetings, which include the infamous Super Bowl 42 meeting where the Giants completed one of the greatest upsets in football history, and the aforementioned Week 12 meeting between the two teams, where Brady threw two backbreaking interceptions that eventually led to the Bucs’ demise as they were unable to score early on in that game. Statistically, Brady’s struggles against Spagnulo’s Kansas City defenses are eye-catching, when factoring in Brady’s touchdown-interception ratio of 4:3 in his two meetings (against Kansas City, previous three came against the Giants) with the veteran coach.
Now, how did Spagnuolo manage to contain arguably the greatest quarterback of all-time? Pressure. Spagnuolo used the Chiefs’ biggest strength on the defensive line in Chris Jones to effectively discomfort Brady in the pocket, as evident through his one sack and three QB hits against Brady with Spagnoulo calling the defensive plays. Not only was this constant pressure apparent in the two times Brady faced Spagnuolo’s two Chiefs defenses, but a similar game plan was used when Brady faced the Giants in Super Bowl 42, and it impressively worked. The Giants sacked Brady five times, and it led to New England only scoring 14 points with one of the most well-assembled offensive units in recent history.
And that brings us to today, where the Bucs will need to install personnel packages of at least three wide receivers (00, 01, 02, 10, 11, and 20 personnel all apply) in order to create favorable matchups against a generally consistent “bend but won’t break” Kansas City secondary with the likes of rookie surprise L’Jarius Sneed and first-team all-pro Tyrann Mathieu. Tampa Bay must allow Brady to pick apart the Chiefs’ disguise blitzes to avenge the nightmares that Spagnoulo gave him in the previous five meetings. What’s worked for Tampa Bay in the past seven weeks is the deep ball, and allowing Brady to take shots downfield gives the Bucs a chance to go punch for punch with Kansas City, as Mahomes will almost certainly be constantly extending plays and hitting throws into negative windows. While also allowing Brady to air it out, the Buccaneers must eliminate the early-down running with Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones as it will cause several drives to stall and that must be avoided against Kansas City, as a shootout is extremely likely against Patrick Mahomes and the video-game-like weapons. Meanwhile, the Chiefs should actually allow Brady to throw against the wind and send exotic rushes at him to put him under duress, because making the “GOAT” feel pressure when it isn’t coming is exactly how you defend against him. Brady’s lack of mobility will limit him in moving outside of the pocket, and compromising his space to throw and just getting hands into his face will likely force an occasional overthrown pass or missed read, which could lead to a costly turnover that could ultimately help Kansas City win.
Overall, I give this matchup advantage to Tampa Bay as their array of weapons will be too much for the Chiefs’ secondary to handle, but don’t be shocked if Spagnuolo is able to pressure Brady into forcing poor throws over the top of the secondary.
Chiefs Keys to the Game:
Pressure Tom Brady using Steve Spagnuolo’s signature disguise blitzes.
Let Mahomes air it out against a secondary that he picked apart in Week 12 of this season.
Buccaneers Keys to the Game:
Eliminate the early down running on offense to avoid drives being put to a halt.
Double Tyreek Hill to limit the big plays and drop seven defensive backs into coverage, rush four around the edges to force Mahomes to drift back several yards and potentially force errant throws.
Connor Easterday’s Prediction: Chiefs 38-20
I think the Chiefs are about to play the best game of their season. I see too many schematic advantages, both offensively and defensively, to feel comfortable about picking the team with lesser talent, in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It may not be in blowout territory, but don’t be surprised if the score gets a little out of hand.
Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes
One Bold Prediction: The Buccaneers commit to stopping Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce ends up scoring two touchdowns, including the final one to put it all away. Though Mahomes ends up with it, Kelce makes a convincing argument to be the Super Bowl MVP.
Ansh Suchdeve’s Prediction: Chiefs 34-27
I firmly believe Tampa Bay will be playing catchup for most of this game, as containing the Chiefs offense is nearly an impossible task. Patrick Mahomes will likely throw for 350+ yards and Kansas City will almost certainly mix-in gadget plays to confuse the stout Buccaneers defense, and Tom Brady’s effort to to go punch for punch with the best quarterback in football will ultimately fall short as the Bucs will surrender too many big plays early in the game, similar to the Week 12 matchup earlier this season. This game will likely come down to the final drive, but I don’t envision the Chiefs offense stalling for long-stretches in this contest, and that will push them over the edge.
Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes
One Bold Prediction: Tom Brady has his best performance of the season until he throws a game-sealing interception to Tyrann Mathieu late in the fourth quarter to give Kansas City their third Lombardi trophy.